ACRL, I am starting to feel a little bit spoilt. Having only recently praised a recent report of yours, 2010 top ten trends in academic libraries, I am once again blogging effusively about your output. This time it’s Futures thinking for academic librarians: Higher Education in 2025, and it’s very very good – well worth a read. So thank-you very much for another contribution to our collective understanding of the current climate and the options open to us.
The shape of things to come
The authors aren’t claiming to be able to see into the future – they’ve just worked to a sound methodology (as per the top ten trends) which basically consists of a thorough environment scan in the library domain and beyond, accompanied by a small survey to capture the librarian imagination. Imagination seems to be a key ingredient in this study, and that’s refreshing, and shouldn’t be problematic as long as it’s underpinned by methodological rigour, which it seems to be.
But it’s not just an academic exercise. This is fundamentally about giving decision-makers in academic libraries some pointers to help them face the challenges of today and tomorrow. The report backs up this approach with a great quotation from anthropologist Margaret Mead:
I use the term ‘open-ended’ to suggest that our future is neither predetermined nor predictable: it is, rather, something which lies in our own hands, to be shaped and moulded by the choices we make in the present time.
So what are the findings of this report?
The report has identified 26 possible scenarios for academic libraries in the year 2025, the distant horizon being justified by a need to see beyond our current woes. It impressively handles very up-to-date ideas on higher education and ponders their potential impact on academic libraries, and this adds to the value of the report. Then each scenario is positioned on a quadrant that plots impact against probability.
What I’ve done is to group what in my view were the most interesting scenarios into a number of headings, so here goes:
The future size and shape of universities
Pop-up campus – Physical campuses all but disappear with the explosive growth of online learning. Spaces pop up intermittently as needed. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
This class brought to you by – For profit institutions lead the way with disaggregated offerings enabling students to pick best of breed. Probability – High. Impact - High.
The future student
A college degree for every citizen – a scenario that higher education becomes more popular and valued across society almost to the point of being a universal entitlement. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
Everyone is a non-traditional student – Students blend studies with the rest of their lives, unable to fund full-time education. Personalised learning becomes the norm as students design their own learning outcomes, and are assessed on demonstrations of learning rather than “seat time”. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
Meet the new freshman class – The digital divide widens between socially privileged students fluent in digital media, and their less tech savvy counterparts. Probability – Medium. Impact – Medium.
The size and shape of academic libraries
Out of business – The academic library loses relevance in the face of direct provision of commercial information tools and services to students and academics. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
Scholarly communications and learning resources
Breaking the textbook monopoly – A scenario in which publishers are mandated by law to make textbooks affordable. Meanwhile academics have embraced open educational resources, and are sharing materials online. Probability: Medium. Impact: Medium.
Bridging the scholar / practitioner divide – Open Access and open peer review have become the norm for many field, facilitating agile community-based dialogue. Probability: High. Impact – High.
Academic niche networking – Near breakdown of traditional academic departments, under pressure by online networks and inter-disciplinary drivers. Probability: Low. Impact: High.
Renaissance redux – The walls of the ivory tower come tumbling down, and academics engage freely with society around knowledge problems. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
Scholarship stultifies – Standard dissemination channels such as university presses implode, but academics continue to be rewarded for conventionally published research. Probability: High. Impact: High.
Pedagogical shifts
No need to search – Authority data is automatically inserted into our content; students are freed up from the need for information skills and can focus on synthesis, analysis and interpretation. Probability: Medium. Impact: High.
Right here with me – Widespread use of mobile devices with location-based services transforms acquisition of learning materials, and interactions between students. Probability – High. Impact – High.
Think U – Forms of knowledge favour the graphic, schematic and visual. Psycho-emotional attributes are favoured over written communication. Probability: Low. Impact: High.
Woven learning – Learning is underpinned by interwoven subjects and multiple intelligences, and is more experience-based. Probability – Low. Impact – Medium.
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